Under Pressure and Provoked: Will Iran Finally Go Nuclear? (Nigerian Perspective)




When Iran’s secret nuclear programme first became global news over 20 years ago, the government in Tehran kept insisting say dem no get any plan to build nuclear weapons. According to dem, everything na for peaceful purposes like electricity and development.

At that time, the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, even backed this claim with a religious ruling (fatwa) wey banned the production of nuclear weapons completely.

But things don change sharply.

Following his reported killing in a joint operation linked to the United States and Israel last month, many hardline figures for Iran now dey see opportunity to abandon that old stance. For Nigerian terms, na like when leadership change suddenly and new people wan run things their own way without minding previous agreements.

According to analyst Trita Parsi, the old belief don practically collapse. He said both the elites and ordinary citizens in Iran now dey think differently, especially after their country don face repeated attacks even while negotiations were ongoing.

For years, Khamenei resisted pressure from within Iran to approve nuclear weapons production. This became more serious after former U.S. president Donald Trump pulled America out of the nuclear deal signed under Barack Obama in 2018.

Instead of rushing, Iran adopted what experts call “strategic patience”   something Nigerians might describe as “shine your eye, no rush enter trouble.” They continued enriching uranium quietly, getting closer to weapons-level capability without actually building a bomb.

Mojtaba: The New Man, Big Questions

Now, attention don shift to Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is believed to have taken over leadership. But up till now, nobody really knows his true position on nuclear weapons.

Calls for Iran to develop a bomb don increase seriously especially after Israel launched major attacks last year that killed top Iranian military and nuclear officials. The tension rose further when Trump reportedly ordered strikes on key nuclear sites.

Even before all these, Iran’s powerful military body, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), had already hinted that the country fit change its nuclear policy if pushed too far.

Iran currently holds over 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium enough to produce multiple nuclear weapons if the leadership gives the green light. That’s like having all the ingredients ready, just waiting for the final decision to cook.

But Mojtaba is said to be in hiding, and even top officials like Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have admitted they are not sure what direction he will take.

Pressure From Within and Outside

Inside Iran, many people especially hardliners are now openly calling for nuclear weapons. One commentator, Nasser Torabi, boldly said the country must take steps to become a global superpower after suffering heavy attacks.

Experts like Sina Azodi believe Iran’s old restraint was mainly because of fear of attacks from the U.S. and Israel. But now that those attacks have already happened, that fear don reduce.

In simple Nigerian talk: “If dem don beat you already, wetin you still dey fear again?”

If Iran Builds a Bomb Wetin be the Next Action?

If Iran decides to go ahead, they might first produce a basic nuclear device (sometimes called a “dirty bomb”) instead of a sophisticated one. This kind of weapon no too advanced but still dangerous and powerful.

However, getting a nuclear weapon no guarantee safety. Experts warn say Iran no fit use such weapons to threaten big powers like the U.S., because America get far more nuclear weapons.

Also, if Iran goes nuclear, it could trigger other countries especially Saudi Arabia to follow the same path. In fact, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had already warned years ago that his country would match Iran if it develops nuclear weapons.

Final Take (Nigerian Angle)

From a Nigerian perspective, this whole situation looks like a classic case of pressure, retaliation, and power struggle. Iran feels cornered and attacked, and now some people believe the only way to gain respect and protection is by building nuclear weapons.

But just like community disputes wey dey escalate, once one side raises the stakes, others will follow and before you know it, the situation don pass control.

The big question now remains:
Will Iran keep patience, or will it finally cross the nuclear line?.

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